TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 08, 2025

1. IPO Market Heats Up

Bloomberg


2. IPO ETF Breaks Out to New Highs

StockCharts


3. QTUM—Quantum Computing ETF Hits New Highs

StockCharts


4. Robinhood $265 Million in Options Revenue this Quarter

Query


5. AAPL Still Below 200-Day

StockCharts


6. Healthcare ETF About to Break to New Lows

StockCharts


7. Berkshire Buffett …50day thru 200day to the Downside in Chart

StockCharts


8. Home Sellers Higher than Buyers by Biggest Spread in Decade

The Irrelevant Investor


9. Trump Raising Record Funds

Trump’s political operation has amassed commitments for $1.4 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter—roughly the same amount as contributions in 2024 to Trump’s committees, super PAC and the Republican Party.

WSJ


10. Compounding luck-Seth’s Blog

Human luck doesn’t even out.

Regression to the mean explains that in statistics, outlying events tend to be overcome by average ones. But in society, the opposite is often true. A small headstart becomes a bigger one, or a small stumble can turn into something that is hard to overcome.

Individuals can work to amplify their good luck.

And society is obligated to create the conditions for bad luck to fade into the background.

We don’t do either one as much as we could or should. https://seths.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 07, 2025

1. Corporate Buybacks Reach Record in July

Bloomberg


2. AMD Did Not Make New Highs in this Rally Before Earnings Yesterday

StockCharts


3. SMCI -25% One-Year Chart


4. Number of Active ETF Launches Skyrockets…Active Management Moving Fully to ETF Model

Russell Investments


5. Data Centers vs. Office Construction

Data center construction spending in the US has more than doubled since ChatGPT’s launch. Source: Exponential View

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


6. 70+ Crypto ETFs Wait SEC Approval

Perplexity


7. How to Analyze a Balance Sheet

Brian Feroldi


8. Reduction in Mexican Remittance Payments from U.S.

Eric Finnegan


9. How Families Pay for College

Market Watch


10. Born Smart or Built Smart? The Truth About Intelligence and Effort

The Habits that Actually Help Make You Smarter-T. Alexander Puutio Ph.D.

Remember, whether any of the habits below nudge Spearman’s g one inch up or down is beside the point. What matters is that research has shown that they measurably improve performance. And if you’re serious about performing better, you need to get just as serious about the habits that drive it.

First, we know that learning isn’t a brute-force effort. It works best when we interleave what we’re learning, mixing subjects and testing ourselves regularly. It’s more effortful, yes, but much like lifting weights, that struggle is what makes the brain grow.

And sorry, podcast junkies—recent research by Hui and Godfroid showed that reading beats listening for retention, which isn’t all that surprising if you’ve followed the breadcrumbs of how ease in the process of learning often means a deficit in the results.

We also know that chunking helps us remember more, and that the memory palace method can turn almost anyone into a Roman orator, delivering entire speeches without a papyrus in sight. If these feats aren’t effective IQ in action, I don’t know what is.

To really hit home the brain-body duality, we also know that movement sharpens our cognition. Kim and colleagues weren’t exactly burying the lede in their 2011 article “Exercise training increases size of hippocampus and improves memory,” and numerous studies after theirs have shown how aerobic activity can improve executive function. In fact, in older adults, regular mobility is directly linked to better cognitive performance and lower risk of dementia.

If you’re surprised, remember that our brains didn’t evolve to operate in stillness. They evolved to think in motion, walking, navigating, reacting to the world around them. In fact, one of the most overlooked habits for improving cognitive performance is giving your brain the kind of environment it evolved for.

We didn’t get smart by sitting still or memorizing lists. We got smart by exploring the world, spotting patterns, making predictions, and adjusting course when we were wrong. That’s how our neural architecture was built by nature, through movement, curiosity, and conversation.

It’s no wonder then that brains perform better when they’re engaged in real-time experiential learning, in the company of others. People who stay mentally sharp into old age aren’t the ones who passively consume what they’re given; they’re the ones still asking questions about the world, expecting each answer to only beget another question.

What Really Matters About Intelligence

The truth about IQ is that the figure you got from WAIS or Stanford-Binet doesn’t define you, and it never did. What matters is how well you drive the mind you’ve got, and how seriously you take the road ahead.

So, if you want to maintain your edge, seek out novelty. Debate your ideas. Explain something out loud. Step into unfamiliar territory—and remember to sleep well before you do. The brain rewards exploration and punishes stagnation.

And above all, remember that your effective intelligence isn’t fixed. It’s as responsive and powerful when correctly tuned as it is fragile if neglected.

As with most things in life, you’re bound to fall to the level of your habits. And the truth about IQ is that we have much more agency over how it manifests in our lives than most ever dare to imagine.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/curiosity-code/202508/born-smart-or-built-smart-the-truth-about-intelligence-and-effort

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 06, 2025

1. Big Tech—Capex vs. Headcount.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28


2. Top 10 S&P Stocks are 40% of Market Cap and 33% of Profits

Zach Goldberg Jefferies The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 40% of the market cap and 33% of the profits…Source: SocGen


3. Biotech Venture Investing Down 75%

Venture Capital


4. Insider Buying Lowest Since 2018

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Insiders at just 151 S&P 500 companies bought their own stocks last month, the fewest since at least 2018, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. And while July’s selling by corporate insiders slowed from June’s pace, purchases dropped even more, pushing the ratio of buying-to-selling to the lowest level in a year, the data shows.


5. Tokenization Market Value.

Charts tell stories. Hockey-stick charts tell big stories.

One of the biggest stories today is that tokenization — the idea of moving stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets over blockchains instead of traditional networks — is having a moment.

Not only has it catapulted from zero to a $25 billion market in four years. But suddenly some of the biggest players in finance are talking about it.

Think about that for a second. 

Stocks are a $117 trillion market. Bonds are a $140 trillion market. That’s $257 trillion up for grabs in the tokenization wars.

This is one chart you’ll want to keep your eye on.


6. Private Equity Stocks Performance vs. Their Funds Performance Last 3 Years.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dtjb/


7. Annual Percent of 1% Daily S&P Moves vs. History.

https://dorseywright.nasdaq.com


8. Demographics is Destiny….Single…China’s Fastest Growing Households.


9. Total U.S. Retirement Assets $43.4 Trillion….401ks $12.2 Trillion

https://www.theleadleft.com/middle-market-private-credit-7-28-2025/


10. 8 Phrases That Make You Sound Smarter.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-productive-leader/posts/?feedView=all

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 05, 2025

1. Stock Picking Long/Short Hedge Funds First Inflows in 10 Years.

https://www.ft.com/content/293d5329-2ff2-46e5-a6f9-4109d43fde2b


2. Real-Time Inflation 1.65%

https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate


3. What May Be Scaring The Fed? Level of Speculation?


4. Level of Speculation?  HOOD Assets Under Custody +100% Year Over Year.

From Howie Lindzon letter https://www.howardlindzon.com/


5. Prof G Newsletter—If the Magnificent 7 were a country, it would have the third-largest GDP, behind the U.S. and China. 

https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe


5. The Best Stock Market Days Occur During Major Declines.

NYT By Jeff Sommer

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/business/stock-market-best-worst-days-investing.html


6. DJT Stock Goes Full Crypto ….No Big Bounce Yet.

www.perplexity.com


7. More Money Raised by Crypto Treasury Stocks than IPOs in 2025


8. GOLD 4 Shots at New Highs…Not Yet.

www.stockcharts.com


9. The Downside of Betting Culture.

https://x.com/JohnArnoldFndtn


10. Technology/Venture Take on American Crime

Venture Investors Warm to Public-Safety and Law-Enforcement Tech

Startups are selling software to help solve crimes or free 911 dispatchers from nonemergency calls, among other things. This year they’ve raised $990 million, nearly double 2024’s total.

By Marc Vartabedian

A crime scene unit in Brooklyn. Venture investors are increasingly backing startups whose software can help in government services, including law enforcement. Photo: Kyle Mazza/Zuma Press

Venture capitalists have made a flurry of bets on public-safety and law-enforcement technology startups this year, the latest sign of a shifting appetite toward companies that rely on government revenue.

Venture firms, including industry leaders Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, have invested in tech ranging from artificial-intelligence voice chatbots that handle nonemergency 911 calls to analytics software that helps detectives solve cold cases. The deals propelled the sector’s overall U.S. funding haul to $990 million this year through July 9, nearly double the amount raised for all of last year, according to data firm Crunchbase.

Venture Capital

Venture Capital news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors.

Investors and entrepreneurs have long viewed plodding government sales cycles as incompatible with the hypergrowth many startups seek. But that’s changing. As AI supercharges the startups’ tech and lowers the cost of developing new products, founders say public-safety agencies are more eager and amenable to doing business with them.

Investors, in turn, are warming to young companies that rely on government sales. The recent success of defense-tech startups—many of them powered by AI—has demonstrated that startups with government-reliant revenue models can make it.

“The ‘Why now’ is AI,” said Nihal Mehta, co-founder and general partner of Eniac Ventures.

Eniac Ventures invested in San Francisco-based Hyper, which launched publicly this month and offers voice AI technology for nonemergency 911 calls. Voice AI has improved to the point where it can be used by police departments, Mehta said, which could save them money and free up human dispatchers to handle more critical calls.

“Historically this sector has had antiquated technology, and police departments were hard to sell into,” said David George, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz. “That has tipped relatively fast.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-investors-warm-to-public-safety-and-law-enforcement-tech-1fc1e21d

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 04, 2025

1. Valuations of AI Startups

Sherwood


2. A New Addition to Speculative Economy….56% Year Over Year Increase in Retail Investors Trading Futures

Barrons-During the second quarter, CME reported that more than 90,000 retail traders, a 56% year-over-year increase, traded futures for the first time. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This development suggests CME is creating a new class of customers, an incredible feat for any business but especially for an established exchange. Major bourses tend to rely on market volatility and well-established customers for growth.

Barrons


3. S&P Tech Sector Short-Term Overbought for 56 Trading Days

Bespoke


4. Capex at META Doubles in One-Year

Irrelevant Investor


5. Spotify Increased Free Cash Flow 100X in 2 Years


6. American Fast Food Managers Make More than European Developers

Michael A Arouet


7. Older Workers Set to Grow by 95% This Decade

Silver staffers aren’t leaving the office

Jacoblund/Getty Images

The promise of midday golf games and spending three hours drinking one cup of coffee at a McDonald’s is not enough to keep older Americans retired. As of last year, workers over the age of 75 are the fastest-growing group in the workforce.

Baby boomers (anyone in the 61–79 age range) are either refusing to retire or, increasingly, reentering the workforce. In some cases, they need to, as the cost of living increases and the Social Security eligibility age creeps higher. Additionally, only about 24% of boomers have defined pension benefits, and only half of private sector workers have access to employer 401(k) plans.

But some, especially white-collar workers, are choosing to spend their golden years in an office:

  • Industries like nuclear energy are desperate for seasoned experts as the country starts to bring plants back online.
  • Less labor-intensive jobs mean older people can work longer with more flexible schedules. Doing a desk job for extra money might be more attractive if you’re doing it from a nice office with central air.
  • Older Americans are also becoming entrepreneurs: As of 2023, nearly a third of new founders are 45+, and the percentage of businesses founded by people 55–64 is rising

Looking ahead…nearly 11 million older workers are employed right now, and that number is expected to jump by ~97% in the next decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.—MM


8. Ozempic and MAHA Hitting Snack Sales


9. American People Trust in Mainstream Media Trust Closing in on Single Digits But Still Above Congress

Bloomberg


10. Country #1 in Streaming

Abnormal Returns